Is the “Mega-cycle of raw materials” over? The price of gold drops, the crises seem to be in the handle. No more Gold is in demand now?
The price of gold has delivered in the past few weeks. This is due to several factors:
1. The technical Long
Chart technically, the gold price is hitting something and has achieved from its overbought Situation. This is clearly seen in the Oszylatoren and in the chart picture.
2. Profit-taking by investors
Some investors have taken a part of their profits on paper gold positions (we have reported about Mr. Soros, etc.).
3. The crisis seems to be in the grip of
This is a fallacy. Because the crisis is not finished. By the Printing of cheap money, a systemic crisis will not be done. The debt of the countries have a long way to go. Only through substantive and systemic Changes, as well as the development of new business fields, these crises can be eliminated. This will last for a long time. Furthermore, one must not underestimate that in Germany this year, a new Bundestag is elected. This shifts the problem to after the election date.
As you can see from the figure (source: Bloomberg), the net Long positions on COMEX on Gold is still very high. We have these removed in comparison to the price of gold. Which leaves us to conclude, it can be lifted quite a bit of Potential.
Furthermore, the Situation in Gold from the fundamental valuation is also exciting. Because at about $ 1,500 USD/oz the limit is set for the production.
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- Article Image: Bloomberg
- Interview: DAF;
- Graphic: Bloomberg,
- Data: Thomson Reuters