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2018-08-09

The basic model of a rational decision

You have to go through the steps in the decision-making process, then a well-structured decision-making model, then ideally the optimal decision logically deduce at the end. How does such a basic model?

The basic model consists of:

  • Alternatives (here, a1 and a2) (space of Action)
  • Environmental conditions (here U1, U2 and U3) (the state space), i.e. a decision under uncertainty.
  • Results (here e11 to e23) (result of function)Together: Decision Box
  • The target system (here, 1 goal)

The decision model represents how each model is a strong simplification of reality. This is also useful because, only through such simplifications of the complex real payments reduce the problems on the most important elements and relations and to solve. The decision, however, can be only as good as the assumptions included in the model. In practice, the most elaborate work is often in the structuring of the decision problem and the model of education. The Balance here is between the claim that the essential components should be recorded and the desire to simplify the complexity of reality to a manageable level.

For the formation of models is often postulated, the models would have to have all the simplification of structure, equality, or similarity in Structure with the one shown in the real system.

Example: The model of a house gives it an Original, namely, the real house, and you can assess how similar the model to the real house. The Original and the Image compare. Then you can for example. notice that all of the rooms are shown in the correct location and to scale, the model is so good.

For the decisions in the company, but there are no such pre-structured reality. The first step therefore is not an “out there” existing structure structure similar to map, but the structure only once. To a decision-making model to come, are vorstrukturie brackets needed. It is only when a decision problem has been verbally formulated, you can map it to a more formal type, model, and assess whether the formal model, the pre-structuring is well again, and in this respect the structure is similar. It is the decision maker, the decision-making field. And it is only through decisions he ultimately comes to a decision model. The most important decisions are often already in the stage of pre-structuring.

The individual components of the basic model will now be subjected to closer analysis. There is the action space, the state space, the score function and the target system.

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