Up or down?

The market expectations for Gold, many analysts and investors are very different. The A expect a rise in the gold price to over $ 2,000/oz, the Other from a price decline.

Of course, no one can say seriously before, where an investment instrument is trending. There are only scenarios, from which one can derive predictions. Otherwise, the market would be boring. Anyone who can say that development in advance, would this would prevent any trade. There are, on the Whole, two different scenarios of what I would like to briefly illuminate:

1. The negative scenario for the gold price

The investor to return the gold price back. The reasons for this could be, for example, that the Euro debt crisis comes to an end, the economic difficulties persist and the adjustment to the investment policy changes. In this case, the gold would remain in price or decrease. Because other forms of investment would be interesting. It is important to note that in the case of an improvement in the level of interest rates would attract.

2. The positive scenario for the gold price

The Situation remains tense. The Central banks stay at the ultra-low interest rate policy, there will be further problems in the global economy. The Deposit conditions of the banks remain at this level. The Inflation is the result (on a moderate level). Gold would remain as a tangible asset investment continue to be very attractive. The price should stabilize.

Why are the interest rates and the Inflation rate for the gold price development important?

Well, Yes, the interest rates are the what is our money’s worth. Because these correspond to the cost of money. So we see a long period of time, the real non-existing rate of interest, which occurs due to Inflation, so we see a “cold expropriation” of savers and investors. You will receive less interest than Inflation takes away. By this scenario, a real loss of value is generated. Gold as a tangible asset investment is suitable to counter this trend.

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